Judicial Recounts

The trend of election results is usually known before all of the votes are counted, and Simple MMP is no exception. As more polls are reported, the results will begin to stablize for almost all systems.  Simple MMP will tend to stabilize a little sooner, since there is no vote shifting involved, as is the case with STV, AV, P3 and Jenkins Inspired systems.

The votes in all ridings are confirmed within a couple of days of the election, and in some cases, a judicial recount is required for certain ridings.  Usually, the change in the vote count is very small, but it is possible that a judicial recount might change the allocation of both the local MP and the final Top-Up seat.

It should be noted, though, that a judicial recount typically involves a swing of a very small number of votes (typically a few hundred at most). If there is a change in the designated winner of the local election, there will often be a compensatory change in the top-up formula based on the provincial totals, because the top-up process is now beginning from a different starting point. The names may change, but the party representation is very likely to remain the same.

Elections Canada has a long history of proven performance with the process of counting votes.  This has been shown with the very small number of judicial recounts in the last elections, and the very small number of votes that changed during these recount.

Since Simple MMP does not change this basic process of vote counting and validation, we can expect that a change in candidate selection due to a judicial recount would be a very rare event.